Scientists have suggested that the Coronavirus is nearing its climax, apparently good news given that the worst of the deadly virus wave will be in the next two weeks before it begins to recede.
On Sunday, the US “Bloomberg” agency quoted an epidemiologist who expected that the Coronavirus would reach its peak between mid and end of February..
London’s epidemiology professor Adam Kucharski relied, in his forecast, on mathematical models to simulate an outbreak of the virus that causes acute pneumonia.
He explained that the reported infection trends in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, support mathematical models used by the London Health College to predict the dynamics of the virus outbreak..
“With the current trends in the spread of the virus assumed, it is expected that Corona will reach its peak between mid and February,” he said “.
“The next two weeks are really important to understand what is happening,” said Benjamin Kaoling, head of the epidemiology department at the University of Hong Kong..
He added that during this period we will know if the virus has spread to other locations, or we have avoided what could be described as a global epidemic due to containment measures.
An official at the World Health Organization considered that the statistics show that the number of cases reported in Hubei, the epicenter of the virus, has witnessed stability in recent days, noting that the matter is “good news and may reflect the effect of the containment procedures followed.”.
Medical authorities in China and around the world are awaiting to know whether the massive quarantine imposed on Wuhan and other Chinese cities has contributed to containing the virus that has killed more than 800 people and infected more than 37,000 others..
500 thousand infections in near future
According to the simulation models Kucharski and his colleagues applied to a set of assumptions, including the incubation period of the virus, meaning the elapsed period between infection with the virus and the appearance of symptoms of infection, this period is 5.2 days, and a period of 6.1 days between the appearance of symptoms and confirmation of infection.
Usually, countries resort to imposing a quarantine on those suspected of contracting the disease for a period of 14 days, which is more than the previous period adopted by scientists, in order to ensure that they are not afflicted with the deadly disease..
Some studies indicate that an infected person may not show symptoms for 14 days or more, which may lead to an increase in the time it takes to determine whether China’s unprecedented measures have succeeded in containing the disease.
Kucharski said he expects the outbreak to rise by 5 percent, based on current data, among people at risk in Wuhan..
Scientists say that the five percent that they talked about means 500,000 new people are infected with the virus, and these are part of the 10 million people who are considered more vulnerable to Coronavirus infection..
This figure appears to be much higher than the 37,000 announced by the Chinese authorities on Sunday.
But scientists believe that the risk of death threatens only one percent of people infected with the Coronavirus.